Florida has seen some of the most dramatic gains in home prices in the United States in recent years. The median price of an existing home has increased by over 100% over the past five years.
There are five fundamental factors driving Florida's housing market:
- The first half of this decade has been characterized by near record low mortgage rates
- Strong job growth
- A growing population - over 400,000 in 2005 (1,100 per day)
- Second home activity by aging baby boomers in their peak earnings years
- Active interest from overseas visitors, immigrants, and investors
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Florida is one of the largest second home markets in the United States, with an estimated 700,000 temporary residents over age 55 spending 30 consecutive days or more there each year.
Florida, and in particular central Florida, remains the number one vacation destination in the United States and the Orlando region is the most visited destination in the world. Sales of vacation homes have been strong in recent years due to low interest rates and a weak dollar, which has helped fuel purchases from overseas.
One third of international purchases of homes in Florida chose locations in Central Florida. The Orlando area is particularly popular for British purchasers who prefer single family home units and account for one third of Florida's home sales to international purchasers.
With demand for homes running well ahead of supply, prices of existing homes have been driven significantly higher. The median price of an existing home sold in the Orlando area surged 45% in the period 2004/05 to $247,900. The price jump was the largest among the State's 21 metropolitan areas and brings the cumulative increase in home prices in the previous five years to 124%. Moreover, Orlando area housing, which traditionally has been priced well below the national average, now sells for 17% more than national average.
The increase in prices coupled with the ever present demand for housing has forced buyers to consider more cost effective locations, such as the four county region, approximately 35 miles to the west of Orlando. This region that the greatest population and price increases are expected. This is already being reflected in the rapidly increasing cost of development land in the area.
With recent increases in interest rates (while remaining at affordable levels) and an increase in development activity, it is expected that Florida's housing markets will move into better balance in coming years but sales are expected to remain strong for the remainder of the decade but not at the exceptional rates of increases seen over the past four years.
Higher home prices in Florida are not expected to snuff out Florida's housing boom. Prices are still significantly lower in most Florida markets than they are in the Northeast United States, where many of Florida's inward migrants come from. |